High-stakes Gaza ceasefire talks are underway. Here’s what to know

Mediators in talks for a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel are making a last-ditch effort this week to revive stalled negotiations, with high-stakes discussions continuing Friday against a backdrop of tension and desperation in the region.

The meeting in Doha started on Thursday and is taking place as the Middle East braces for a possible Iranian attack on Israel, and after the death toll since October in Gaza reached 40,000 people, a bleak figure that underscores 10 months of suffering, malnutrition and despair in the enclave.

The fear of an Iranian attack poses a further serious threat to negotiations that have already appeared tenuous in recent weeks, after a string of Israeli strikes took out Hamas’ former political leader and senior figures in Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

In the meeting, Qatar, Egypt and the United States are expected to present a plan to implement a deal that could bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza and free the remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The deal was proposed by US President Joe Biden in May – but unresolved differences have left the path forward unclear.

Here’s what we know about the status of the talks so far.

What has happened in the talks?

While inconclusive so far, Thursday’s talks marked “a promising start,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said as they got underway in Doha.

On Thursday, the militant group reiterated that there will be no hostage deal or ceasefire agreement without a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

Al Thani, a key mediator in the talks, has updated the Iranian foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani on the ongoing mediation efforts, according to a statement by the Qatari foreign ministry on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said during a Thursday speech to Turkey’s parliament that he would visit Gaza soon, in an effort to help bring about a pause to the “barbaric aggression.”

What is Biden’s proposal?

In May, Biden laid out a three-phase proposal the administration said was submitted by Israel that would pair a release of hostages from Gaza with a “full and complete ceasefire” and a release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

The first phase would last six weeks and include the “withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza” and the “release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly, the wounded in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners” and the implementation of a temporary truce.

Phase 2 would allow for the “exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers” and a permanent end to the fighting.

In Phase 3, a “major reconstruction plan for Gaza would commence and any final remains of hostages who’ve been killed will be returned to their families,” the US president said.

Israel launched its war against Hamas after the group’s cross-border October 7 attacks, in which more than 1,200 Israelis were killed and 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli authorities. More than 100 of those hostages remain in Gaza, their families back home pleading for a breakthrough to secure their safe return. It is unclear how many of the original hostages set for release are still alive.

Hamas and Israel have been engaged in tedious negotiations for months. Officials from Qatar and Egypt act as intermediaries, delivering messages to Israeli and Hamas representatives in shuttle-style diplomacy since representatives from the warring parties are not present at the same location. Technical teams have flown in and out of Doha and Cairo to iron out details for a potential agreement.

What are the key remaining sticking points?

Despite an initial positive reaction from Hamas and Israel, both sides failed to agree on the implementation of the finer details of the proposal including the sequencing of the hostage-prisoner exchange, the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released and how far back Israeli forces should withdraw in Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of undermining the deal as far-right members of his ruling coalition threaten to collapse the government despite pressure from the US and families of hostages.

Throughout the war, the prime minister has been caught between two potent political forces: the far-right members of his governing coalition who have been opposed to any suggestion that Israeli troops should leave Gaza, and the relatives of hostages held by Hamas, who have formed a powerful pressure group and have implored Netanyahu to reach a deal.

Netanyahu’s office on Tuesday rejected claims that the prime minister had changed positions, saying his most recent stance “does not introduce extra conditions and certainly does not contradict or undermine” the May proposal. Netanyahu’s office instead accused Hamas of adding unrealistic demands to its position.

The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

What is Hamas’ position on Thursday’s talks?

US officials had said that talks had reached an advanced stage until Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in late July in an assassination Iran blamed on Israel. Israel hasn’t confirmed or denied responsibility, but Iran has vowed vengeance.

There were concerns that the assassination would throw a wrench in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. The militant group replaced Haniyeh with Yahya Sinwar, the hardline Hamas leader in Gaza who is one of Israel’s most wanted men. While Haniyeh, a relative moderate, lived in Qatar and was susceptible to pressure from his host country, Sinwar is believed to be deep underground in a tunnel in Gaza and is hard to reach.

Hamas on Thursday denied it was having difficulty communicating with its leader Sinwar, after one of its top officials Osama Hamdan reportedly acknowledged in an interview with the Associated Press on Tuesday that there are “some difficulties” and delays in communicating with him.

Hamas hasn’t ruled out an agreement with Israel, but said that it won’t engage in further negotiations. It instead asked mediators for a plan to implement a ceasefire proposal put forward by Biden.

Asked why Hamas has been unclear about whether it will attend the ceasefire talks, the source said: “This ambiguity is the movement’s position, which was announced in its latest statement, is intentional and did not come by chance. It comes as a result of Netanyahu’s behavior.”

Why are this week’s talks so important?

This latest round of ceasefire talks were the result of a major diplomatic effort by mediators Qatar, Egypt and the US to push for a last-ditch effort to end the war and free the hostages as Iran prepares to attack Israel.

The urgency of the talks was highlighted by the three mediators, who issued a rare joint statement last week calling on the warring parties to return to negotiations and offered what they called a “final bridge proposal” to overcome the remaining sticking points. The details of that proposal have not been made public.

In parallel, US and Middle East diplomats have been mobilizing to dissuade Iran from launching an attack on Israel that could lead to a wider regional war. Both Iran and the US have said that that lines of communication between them are open through intermediaries.

There have been some indications that Iran may abandon plans to attack Israel if a ceasefire deal is reached. But the country’s mission to the United Nations said on Saturday that Tehran’s retaliation is “totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire.”

As of Tuesday afternoon, US officials didn’t believe that Iran has decided on a course of retaliatory action against Israel, according to two US administration officials. Furious diplomatic backchannel efforts are ongoing to try to deter a wide-scale attack and de-escalate the volatile situation, one of those officials said.

The second official added that the Biden administration does believe that the US’s public warnings in recent days have affected Iran’s calculus.

The conversation between Al Thani and Kani was “positive,” a diplomat familiar with the call said.

Biden acknowledged the challenges facing a ceasefire deal Tuesday, telling reporters traveling with him to New Orleans he’s “concerned” about negotiations between the two parties amid the looming threat of an attack on Israel from Iran.

The president rebuffed questions on what he’s doing to pressure Israel and Hamas to come to the bargaining table for proposed ceasefire deal talks Thursday, telling reporters, “If I told you what pressure that I’m putting on it, it wouldn’t be very much pressure would it?”

The lack of clarity on whether the Israeli prime minister will adhere to Biden’s May proposal, the source added, suggests time is running out to strike a deal before an Iranian attack. Qatar and Egypt, the source said, may not have enough influence to push Hamas to compromise.

This story has been updated.